When the first surveys on oshikatsu appeared in the early 2010s, the picture was fairly clear: young women, mostly in their teens and twenties, spending significant amounts of money on idol groups. The phenomenon was real, occasionally alarming to parents, and culturally specific enough that most analysts treated it as a niche.

That picture is now completely wrong. According to a survey conducted by MyNavi, approximately one in two full-time employees in their 20s are involved in oshikatsu, while people in their 30s tend to spend a higher average amount. The person spending the most on their oshi is not the teenager with pocket money — it is the working adult with a salary and no mortgage.

What Changed: The Legitimacy Shift

Oshikatsu is now openly discussed at work and even on dating profiles, no longer dismissed as childish. In a society where traditional identity markers feel increasingly unstable, having an oshi provides structure, purpose and community.

This is a significant cultural shift. Five years ago, many oshikatsu participants kept their fandom private at the office — the same way someone might not mention a political opinion or a religious practice at work. Today, the question "who is your oshi?" is a normal icebreaker at company nomikai. Dating app profiles list oshikatsu interests alongside hobbies like hiking or cooking.

The reason is partly economic. Economists are viewing oshikatsu as a driver of consumer spending in Japan, where fan culture connects with economic growth. The trend is expressed through attending events and purchasing collectibles such as CDs, posters, photocards and related merchandise, particularly items meant to be kept and displayed over time. When the government and major banks begin citing a phenomenon as a macroeconomic indicator, its cultural legitimacy follows.

The Demographics Nobody Expected

The fastest-growing segment of the oshikatsu market is not teenagers. It is middle-aged adults — particularly women and men in their 40s and 50s, whose participation rates have risen significantly over the past three years.

Experts say demographic shifts are a key factor. Falling birth rates, rising rates of singlehood and wage increases have converged to give middle-aged and older adults more disposable income for personal spending, and that money is flowing into the oshikatsu market.

The implication is counterintuitive: oshikatsu is partly a product of Japan's demographic crisis turning into individual economic freedom. People who are not spending money on children's education, housing upgrades, or family vacations have significant discretionary budgets. They are spending those budgets on their oshi.

The Sustainability Turn

One of the most unexpected developments in oshikatsu culture in 2026 is the emergence of sustainability as a fan value. As fan communities become more attentive to how these products are made, sustainability is becoming a natural extension of the oshikatsu experience. This shift also aligns with broader consumer sentiment in Japan, where 56.6% of the population is aware of sustainable products and SDGs.

This matters commercially. Fans who care about the ethics of their merchandise production are more likely to pay premium prices for certified products, more likely to avoid counterfeit goods, and more likely to remain loyal to officially sanctioned merchandise channels. The sustainability turn is not just an ethical development — it is a market structure development, one that benefits official producers at the expense of the grey market.

What Oshikatsu Does to the People Who Do It

More than 70% of people who are involved in oshikatsu say that oshikatsu is an important part of their lives. Compared to people who are not involved, oshikatsu participants report more fulfilling work and personal lives.

This finding is consistent across multiple studies and surveys. The mechanism appears to be the same one identified in the original oshikatsu research: having an oshi provides a reliable source of positive emotion, community connection, and forward-looking anticipation in daily life. When the next concert date is announced, the oshikatsu participant has something to look forward to. When the merchandise drops, there is a decision to make and a community to share it with.

In a society where many traditional sources of meaning — long-term employment, family formation, neighborhood community — have become less reliable or less available, oshikatsu provides a scalable, affordable alternative. You do not need to be young, partnered, employed in a stable job, or living in a specific place to have an oshi. You only need the oshi and the desire to show up for them.

"Oshikatsu has evolved into a trillion-yen lifestyle. What's changed most is legitimacy — it is now openly discussed at work and even on dating profiles."

GaijinPot / Japan Today, January 2026

The Dark Side Nobody Talks About

The positive data is real. So is the negative data. Oshikatsu is pretty much bankrupting the young generation, with many going into severe debt to fund oshikatsu. This is not a fringe concern — it is a documented pattern, particularly among younger fans who lack the income of the middle-aged demographic that currently drives the market's growth.

Financial counselors in Japan report a rising number of clients in their twenties seeking help with oshikatsu-related debt. The structure of the problem mirrors other forms of compulsive spending: the purchases are individually small, the social context makes them feel normal and expected, and the emotional reward is immediate and reliable in a way that saving money is not.

The oshikatsu market itself has no particular incentive to address this. The fan who spends 50% of their disposable income is a better customer than the fan who spends 10%. The industry continues to develop products, experiences, and platforms specifically designed to deepen emotional investment and increase spending.

Where Oshikatsu Goes From Here

Companies have responded by designing events, merchandise and platforms that reward deeper emotional and financial investment. The trajectory points toward more personalization, more digital integration, and more global reach.

The oshikatsu economy creates opportunities in merchandising and digital platforms, particularly relevant among Generation Z. International investors are paying attention. So are international fans — who are discovering oshikatsu culture through anime, K-pop, and the growing visibility of Japanese pop culture globally.

The oshikatsu participant of 2030 may be in Seoul, São Paulo, or London — someone who has never visited Japan but who has organized their discretionary spending, their social life, and their sense of identity around a Japanese idol, character, or athlete. The train, as Galaxy Express 999 would put it, is still leaving the station. And it is picking up passengers at every stop.